Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Market commentary

In this morning’s economic news, durable goods orders rose from 0.7% in February, a positive report that reflects continued business investment to which regional Fed surveys have been pointing.
Mortgage applications fell 5.6% as purchase applications fell 13.6%. Applications for mortgages continue to be space with refinance applications remaining well below their 10 year average despite mortgage rates remaining near four decade lows.

As usual on a Fed meeting day, the markets are eagerly awaiting the conclusion of the meeting when their official statement is released. Today it will be earlier than normal, 10:30 ET, giving the markets one hour and forty-five minutes to digest the statement before Chairman Bernanke will hold the FOMC’s first post-meeting press conference. The press conference is being held to improve transparency, per the FOMC. History tells us, however, that Fed Chairmen can speak at length without anyone learning a whole lot.

Tuesday saw a decent price improvement in bonds, which was a positive sign given the so-so results of the 2 year note auction. Today, in the midst of the Benanke’s news conference the U.S Treasury will auction $35 billion of 5 year notes.

This morning bond prices are giving back some of Tuesday’s gains with the yield on the 10 year note rising to 3.36%.

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