U.S. Initial Jobless Claims were released this morning and reflected a larger-than-expected increase to 479k last week. Treasuries are rallying on the news, but any move today can quickly be undone tomorrow morning after the release of the jobs data.
The market will focus on private payrolls for which the consensus is that they will increase by 83k while the headline number, which includes government payrolls, is expected to drop by 125k (driven by declines in census workers). Employment reports released earlier in the week including ADP’s, Challenger’s, and Monster’s all reflected slightly better employment numbers allowing the markets to breathe a little bit easier going into tomorrow’s report.
The 10 year Treasury note is trading at 2.91% this morning, seemingly stuck in the range of 2.90% to 3.10%. This could all change tomorrow with any surprise in the jobs data.
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