Market commentary

Bond prices are slightly improved this morning as the economic calendar gets very busy this week. Three must-watch releases are the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, industrial production/capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The June FOMC minutes are not likely to produce any insight that hasn’t already been discerned from the announcement and from comments by Fed officials since then. The minutes should reinforce expectations that the Fed will remain on-hold for quite some time focusing on economic growth, as inflation remains quite low, which is expected to show in the Consumer Price Index.

This week also features $68 billion of Treasuries including an estimated $34 billion of three-year notes, $21 billion of ten-year notes, and $13 billion of thirty-year bonds. Second quarter earnings season will also begin so, while last week was a fairly uneventful one for the markets and the outlook, the coming week should prove more interesting, reinforcing or refuting the double-dip concerns.

Market commentary

Bond prices fell Thursday causing the yield on the 10 year note to rise above 3% for the first time in many days, closing at 3.03%. Yields are slightly higher this again this morning, now trading at 3.055%. Mortgage prices fell Thursday as well, causing most lenders to re-price for the worse, and mortgage pricing is slightly worse again this morning.

In contrast to this week, next week will feature a busy calendar of economic releases, Treasury auctions and the beginning of earnings season. Keep in mind the bond market has priced in an Armageddon type economic collapse, so any positive news, including positive earnings announcements from corporate America could cause interest rates to move higher.

Market commentary

Given the lack of economic data and growing positive sentiment that 2nd quarter earnings were strong, gave the impetus for Wednesday’s stock market rally, and subsequent sell off in bonds. This scenario is playing out again this morning as U.S. stock markets are moving higher and bond prices lower. The yield on the 10 year note rose above 3%, currently trading at 3.035%.

Next week’s treasury auctions are putting additional pressure on the bond market with estimates of $34 billion of 3 year notes, $21 billion of 10 year notes, and $13 billion of 30 year bonds.

Interest rates on mortgages remain at 4.50% and below, so there is still opportunity for your home buyers and borrowers seeking to refinance to a lower rate.

Market commentary

U.S. stock markets began Tuesday morning with a surge that faded late in the day, resulting in a surge in bond prices. Mortgage bonds rallied along with treasuries as investors continue to seek risk adverse returns, even though those returns are sub 1.00%.

Today stocks are higher at the open with bonds flat from Tuesday’s close, but as we have seen in recent weeks the markets can be quite fickle. Mortgage prices are flat from Tuesday’s close, keeping in mind HSOA improved pricing mid-day.

Market commentary

Weak economic releases dominated last week’s news, supporting bond prices and low yields, and also driving down stock prices. With little data scheduled for release this holiday shortened week, stocks and bonds will trade on news related items, while keeping in mind the U.S. Treasury will auction 3 year and 10 year notes, and 30 year bonds the following week.

U.S. stock markets are rebounding this morning as are bonds. Mortgage pricing is .125% to .25% better than Friday.

Market commentary

Non-farm payrolls fell 125,000 as U.S. census workers were let go, however, the private sector hired 83,000 new workers reflecting the U.S. economy is treading water at best. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 9.50% as folks left the workforce.

The U.S. stock and bond market reactions have been muted, with both markets down slightly. The yield on the 10 year note rose slightly to 2.98%, while mortgage prices are approximately .125% than Thursday. The bond market has a full trading session today, and the HSOA lock desk will be open normal hours---until 4:00 PM, PT.

Have a safe and happy Independence Day celebration!

Market Commentary

Believe it or not, bond prices are moving higher again today, mostly at the long end with the yield on the 10 year note holding at 2.90%. Stock markets are falling again based on continued weak economic data, including and increase in weekly jobless claims and a decline in manufacturing.

Other weak data driving investors into U.S. Treasuries came from Europe and China as they reported declining economic activity based on a decline manufacturing activity, and Spain was put on credit watch.

Mortgage prices are flat this morning from the close on Tuesday, but remember, trading will be very light as we head into the Independence Day Holiday weekend, so we could see some volatility.

HSOA would like to thank all of our partners and associates for making June a terrific month! Loan volume continues to be high, so please do not delay in submitting your loan files and conditions to ensure timely July closings.